liveLive: ASX on the up after gains on Wall Street, US Federal Reserve holds ratesBy business reporter Rhiana WhitsonTopic:Stock Market4h ago4 hours agoWed 7 May 2025 at 9:59pmSkip to timelineabc.net.au/news/asx-markets-business-live-news-may-federal-reserve/105266932Link copiedShareShare articleIt's a choppy day on the Australian share market as investors react to corporate profit updates and global news. After opening Thursday's session lower, the ASX is on the rise.Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve has held interest rates. Follow the day's financial news and insights from our specialist business reporters on our live blog.Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice.Key EventsTrump to announce first trade deal: reports19m ago19 minutes agoThu 8 May 2025 at 2:14amFour Corners and ABC Business Reporting Team investigate Bunnings1h ago1 hours agoThu 8 May 2025 at 1:05amHouse prices are likely to continue rising, says NAB boss2h ago2 hours agoThu 8 May 2025 at 12:03amShow all key eventsSubmit a comment or question Log in to commentLive updatesLatestOldestPinned4h agoWed 7 May 2025 at 10:03pmMarket snapshotRBy Rhiana WhitsonASX 200: +0.1% to 8,188 pointsAustralian dollar: -0.2% to 64.47 US centsWall Street: Dow Jones (0.7%), S&P 500 (+0.4%), Nasdaq (+0.3%)Europe: FTSE (-0.4%), DAX (-0.6%), EuroStoxx 600 (-0.5%)Spot gold: +0.2% to $US3,399/ounceBrent crude: +0.2% to $US61.26/barrelIron ore: +0.8% to $US98.25/tonneBitcoin: +3.1% to $US98,053Values at approx. 11:21am AESTABC News - Trusted Source of Latest News & HeadlinesCopy link2m agoThu 8 May 2025 at 2:30amConcern about bias in AI recruitmentNBy Nadia DalyWith employers increasingly turning to AI to help them recruit new staff, new research is raising concern about the risk of discrimination.Read more in this article from our friends at the Law Report:Will AI decide if you get your next job? New research says it could Copy linkKey Event19m agoThu 8 May 2025 at 2:14amTrump to announce first trade deal: reportsNBy Nadia DalySome breaking news now, as we say in the biz.The New York Times is reporting the US President is set to announce a trade deal with the UK.The announcement will be made Thursday, US time (overnight here), according to the NYT and it will be Donald Trump's first trade deal, as he sits down with several major trading partners over the coming weeks.The Trump administration slapped tariffs on all countries in April, ranging from 10% to over 140%. He has since hit pause on most for a few months while he heads to the negotiating table.US and Chinese counterparts are set to meet this weekend to discuss tariffs (which each country has imposed on the other, well over 100%).Copy link35m agoThu 8 May 2025 at 1:58amFitch Ratings says Macquarie Bank's ratings won't be immediately affected by regulator actionGBy Gareth HutchensMichael Janda and Stephanie Chalmers reported yesterday that ASIC was taking action against Macquarie Bank for "significant" compliance failures.You can read that story in the link below.Fitch Ratings says those additional conditions placed on Macquarie's financial services licence by the regulator won't have an immediate impact on the bank's ratings.However, it is holding out the possibility that the bank's risk profile (from an investor's perspective) may face more pressure if it turns out that the bank's risk controls have been weaker than currently understood.But it is also emphasising that that's not its base-case scenario for Macquarie. It says it depends on what further investigations uncover.Here's what Fitch has said in a statement:The additional conditions placed on Macquarie Bank Limited’s (MBL A+/Stable/a) financial services licence by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) will not have an immediate impact on the bank’s ratings, says Fitch Ratings.ASIC requires MBL to address deficiencies in its over-the-counter derivatives trade reporting and futures dealing business.Furthermore, the bank must appoint an independent expert to review and report on the effectiveness of its remediation plan.ASIC’s actions follow a $5 million fine levied against MBL in September 2024 after an ASIC investigation found the bank had failed to prevent suspicious orders being placed on the electricity futures market.No new fines have been announced as part of the current measures.Fitch expects MBL to incur additional expenses from the remediation programme, which will demand increased management attention, but the terms will remain manageable for the bank.The bank's financial profile key rating driver scores, which significantly contribute to its Viability Rating (VR) of 'a', are unlikely to be affected.The risk profile score of ‘a’ is also not affected for now, although there could be downward pressure if further investigations uncover widespread weaknesses in MBL’s risk controls; however, this is not our base-case scenario.MBL has comfortable headroom at the current VR, meaning a downgrade in the VR is unlikely unless several key rating driver scores are lowered at the same time.ASIC takes action against Macquarie for 'significant' failuresCopy link55m agoThu 8 May 2025 at 1:38am'RBA will almost definitely cut' rates: analystNBy Nadia DalyHello, Nadia Daly here, taking the reins on the blog for this afternoon.We heard the US central bank held on rates overnight, but what about their Aussie counterparts?Here's a note from GSFM investment specialist Stephen Miller, who, like most RBA-watchers, reckons our central bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month."The March quarter consumer price index (CPI) was a good enough result for a 25 bp policy rate cut at the next RBA meeting on May 19-20, but that is about it. The trimmed-mean result at 2.7 per cent was bang on the RBA projection and recall RBA Governor, Michele Bullock, was at pains to quash any notion that the April rate cut was necessarily the start of a sequence of rate cuts at each successive RBA meeting. It may be but the governor wants to give herself and the board maximum optionality for future RBA board meetings.In that sense, expectations in some quarters for a 50bp policy rate cut seem 'a bridge too far'. That said, the upending of the global trade system occasioned by the Trump Administration’s tariff agenda will more likely than not see a global recession by year-end. That prospect, combined with perhaps some 'over-achievement' on inflation relative to the current RBA projection, may mean that we do get successive policy rate reductions at future RBA Board meetings despite the understandable unwillingness of the Governor to pre-commit to such a path.Australia’s eschewal of retaliatory tariff measures may give the RBA a less complicated path to attacking the consequences of a global trade war. The absence of retaliatory measures will mean a mitigation of the inflation part of the global 'stagflation-lite' scenario, allowing the RBA to cut rates and, if need be, to cut aggressively to forestall the inevitable decline in economic growth. So, the RBA will almost definitely cut the policy rate in May. Further, given the prospect of the RBA 'over-achieving' on inflation, combined with the likelihood of global recession, it could well be that the policy rate has a “2” handle by year-end. Just don’t expect the governor to indicate that in her May press conference."Copy link1h agoThu 8 May 2025 at 1:13amNo farm, no Liberal member? City exodus evident in Victorian resultDBy Daniel ZifferHi team,Just jumping in with something that has struck me as I've been watching the final tallies.Importantly, votes are still being counted. The Liberal Party is very close in the inner-suburban seat of Kooyong, which has 'teal' independent MP Monique Ryan fighting to retain the seat.If she does retain it (and Dr Ryan is currently ahead) the Liberal Party will only hold one seat in Victoria that doesn't have farmland in it.That seat, Goldstein, has been won by Tim Wilson of the Liberal Party, who wrenched it back from teal Zoe Daniel. It's a densely suburban seat in bayside Melbourne.The only other wins are in peri-urban areas on the very edge of Melbourne, such as heading east towards Gippsland and also the Mornington Peninsula.The seat of Wannon, held by potential new leader Dan Tehan, starts just outside of Geelong and goes to the South Australian border.We saw some of this in the 2022 election, where the Liberal Party ended the election without a seat that overlooks Sydney Harbour.There's a great Casey Briggs article at the bottom of this post that discusses the metro near-wipeout that the Liberal Party has experienced.I'm from the country and I love the country. But politics is a numbers game.Most Australians live in large capital cities. so unless the opposition can win convince more voters in them to get behind their policies and choices, they're not going to win government.Anthony Albanese enters the Labor pantheonCopy linkKey Event1h agoThu 8 May 2025 at 1:05amFour Corners and ABC Business Reporting Team investigate BunningsRBy Rhiana WhitsonFour Corners’ Angus Grigg and ABC business reporter Emilia Terzon dig into Bunnings’ unchecked dominance, its soaring profits, and whether regulators have turned a blind eye while it reshapes Australian retail.'Hammered' goes to air on Monday 12 May at 8.30pm on ABC TV and ABC iview.Loading...Copy link2h agoThu 8 May 2025 at 12:28amASX dragged down by banks, miners, consumer discretionary stocksRBy Rhiana WhitsonThe ASX is trading lower on Thursday, down 0.2%.ASX chartHere's a look at the biggest gains and declines on the benchmark index:And how the sectors are performing:Losses on the local share market follow a choppy trading session on Wall Street, as US investors reacted to the US Federal Reserve holding rates steady.Copy link2h agoThu 8 May 2025 at 12:20amASX falls 0.2% in early tradeRBy Rhiana WhitsonThe ASX 200 has dropped 0.2% to 8,160.We'll bring you more on the Australian share market as the early numbers settle.Copy linkKey Event2h agoThu 8 May 2025 at 12:03amHouse prices are likely to continue rising, says NAB bossRBy Rhiana WhitsonNAB chief executive Andrew Irvine says house prices could take off again in late 2025 if the Reserve Bank follows the bank's easing cycle forecasts, cutting 100 basis points from the cash rate by September.Watch here:House prices are likely to continue rising, says NAB bossCopy linkKey Event2h agoWed 7 May 2025 at 11:48pmSuper Retail Group margins under pressureRBy Rhiana WhitsonSuper Retail Group, which owns Supercheap Auto, Rebel, BCF and Macpac, will present to the Macquarie Australia Conference today.After a shocking year at the company, involving multiple scandals, Super Retail Group's profit margin is under pressure.Group sales results for the second half are up 3.1%.Group gross margins in H2 FY25 are tracking below the prior comparable period.Copy linkKey Event3h agoWed 7 May 2025 at 11:22pmFederal Reserve 'clueless' as it awaits tariff impactMBy Michael JandaNo-one on the markets was surprised by the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting, with the decision to leave the funds rate on hold at 4.25-4.5% almost unanimously anticipated.The written statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) didn't say a huge amount."The minimalist statement issued by the Fed at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting gave no hint that it was considering a further cut to the fed funds rate, at least not any time soon," wrote Paul Ashworth, the chief North America economist for Capital Economics."The statement acknowledged that "uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further" and that officials were worried about both "the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation". Despite the weakness in first-quarter GDP, economic activity was still described as expanding at a "solid" pace.Fed chair Jerome Powell did expand on some of these "uncertainties" a bit more during his press conference.Rabobank's senior US strategist Philip Marey titled his note analysing the meeting "Clueless"."Powell said it was too early to know what the tariffs are going to be and how they are going to affect the economy," he wrote."He repeated that the FOMC is in a good position to wait and see and that they can afford to be patient. He said the right thing to do is to wait for more clarity and then the committee knows which way to go."However, during the press conference he could not explain what they were looking for in the data that would get them to move."When specifically asked about moving at the next meeting, he said that they did not think they need to be in a hurry, but if something develops they could act. Right now they are waiting for more data and he really could not give a time frame on when they would move."Copy link3h agoWed 7 May 2025 at 11:06pmMixed half-year results for OricaRBy Rhiana WhitsonOrica has reported a first-half statutory loss, but raised its interim dividend as underlying earnings increased. The chemicals and explosives maker says it made a net loss of $89 million for the six months through March, versus a profit of $337.5 million a year earlier.Its bottom line was weighed by $339.8 million in previously flagged significant items, primarily from an impairment and restructuring costs in its Latin America operations. Profit before significant items was $250.8 million, up 40% on a year ago. Earnings increased in all regions and business segments, Orica said. Directors declared an interim dividend of 25 Australian cents a share, representing a payout ratio of 49% of earnings, the company said. A year ago, Orica paid an interim dividend of 19 Australian cents a share.Copy link3h agoWed 7 May 2025 at 10:56pmToll road operator Transurban to cut 300 staffRBy Rhiana WhitsonTransurban will cut 300 jobs following a workforce review. Chief executive Michelle Jablko said the changes would make Transurban a more efficient and effective organisation, with no impact on safety from the smaller team. Transurban says the job cuts will save the company more than $50 million annually.There's no change to Transurban's full-year guidance for a distribution of $0.65 a security.Copy link3h agoWed 7 May 2025 at 10:48pmConfession season in full swingRBy Rhiana WhitsonYou may have already noticed, but it's confession season for ASX-listed companies.Basically, it's a time when corporate Australia comes clean about whether their earnings are unlikely to meet expectations, before full-year results come out from July.Stay tuned.Copy linkKey Event4h agoWed 7 May 2025 at 10:32pmANZ reports flat first-half cash profitRBy Rhiana Whitson'Big four' bank ANZ Group has reported a rise in half-year profit. The country's fourth-largest bank said its first half statutory profit was up 7%, to $3.6 billion.However, cash profit was flat at $3.5 billion.ANZ’s net interest margin fell to 1.56 per cent.However, the bank's net interest income rose 12% to $938 million driven by a $126.5 billion increase in average interest earning assets with net interest margin remaining flat.Copy linkKey Event4h agoWed 7 May 2025 at 10:20pmWall Street gains, Fed Reserve holds ratesRBy Rhiana WhitsonWall Street stocks made gains on Wednesday (US time), while US Treasury yields fell after the Federal Reserve left interest rated unchanged.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%, to 41,113, the S&P 500 added 0.4%, to 5,631 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite finished the day up 0.3% at 17,738.After a choppy session there was a late rally, as chipmakers jumped after Bloomberg reported President Donald Trump's administration plans to rescind AI chip curbs made by the Biden administration.This was after the Fed Reserve held rates steady, which was in line with expectations.Fed Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said while the US economy continued to expand at a solid pace, it noted that risks of higher inflation and unemployment had risen as it grapples with the impact of Trump's tariff policies.The risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation left the Fed with almost no good short-term options, said Julia Hermann, global market strategist at New York Life Investments."Their ability to pre-emptively cut rates to shore up economic growth is constrained by upside inflation risks, and then, conversely, their ability to pre-emptively hike rates to reduce inflation risk is constrained by downside risk to growth," she said."So it's a stagflation conundrum." "We expect to see meaningful easing from the Fed only in the scenario that economic growth figures really disappoint."In US Treasuries, yields slipped after the Fed's update. The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes fell 4.9 basis points to 4.2% from 4.3% late on Tuesday while the 30-year bond yield fell 4.1 basis points to 4.7%.The two-year note yield, which typically moves in step with Fed interest rate policy, fell 0.8 basis point to 3.7%, from 3.7% late on Tuesday.Copy link4h agoWed 7 May 2025 at 9:50pmGood morningRBy Rhiana WhitsonGood morning, and welcome to the ABC business blog for Thursday May 8.Apologies for the later than unusual start. It's been a morning of computer problems for me.The Australian share market is set to rise, after gains on Wall Street.In news related to markets, the US Federal Reserve has kept interest rates at the target range of 4.25% to 4.5%Copy linkPosted 4h ago4 hours agoWed 7 May 2025 at 9:59pm, updated 59m ago59 minutes agoThu 8 May 2025 at 1:34amShare optionsCopy linkFacebookX (formerly Twitter)TimelineRead nextCommentsTimelineKey EventsLatestMarket snapshotRBACompany newsResultsAnalysisEconomyMarketsPress ConferenceTrump to announce first trade deal: reports19m ago19 minutes agoThu 8 May 2025 at 2:14amFour Corners and ABC Business Reporting Team investigate Bunnings1h ago1 hours agoThu 8 May 2025 at 1:05amHouse prices are likely to continue rising, says NAB boss2h ago2 hours agoThu 8 May 2025 at 12:03amSuper Retail Group margins under pressure2h ago2 hours agoWed 7 May 2025 at 11:48pmFederal Reserve 'clueless' as it awaits tariff impact3h ago3 hours agoWed 7 May 2025 at 11:22pmANZ reports flat first-half cash profit4h ago4 hours agoWed 7 May 2025 at 10:32pmWall Street gains, Fed Reserve holds rates4h ago4 hours agoWed 7 May 2025 at 10:20pmTop Stories'He was that toxic': 600 unused posters tell the story of Dutton's failed campaignTopic:ElectionsPhoto shows Backlit photo of a Dutton press conference, his silhouette centred in front of a microphoneAustralia's best sports rights in the hands of a Soviet-born, former oil tycoonTopic:Media IndustryAlbanese to speak with King Charles, Labor factions hash out next ministryTopic:Government and PoliticsDoctor told Erin Patterson she might need liver transplant, court hearsTopic:Law, Crime and Justice'Offensive': PM unleashes on ousted Greens MPTopic:Government and PoliticsJust InWoman with more than 1,000 minions in home wins Guinness World RecordTopic:Human Interest11m ago11 minutes agoThu 8 May 2025 at 2:22amANZ profit rises as NAB boss tips rate cuts and housing boomTopic:Banking18m ago18 minutes agoThu 8 May 2025 at 2:15amNepotism, financial misconduct claims rock Aboriginal land councilTopic:Local Government4m ago4 minutes agoThu 8 May 2025 at 2:29amGrazier recovering from grain silo collapse running for his rescuersTopic:Emergency Services41m ago41 minutes agoThu 8 May 2025 at 1:51amMore Just InBack to top