liveMarkets live: NAB profit falls 2.5pc, ASX to slip on lack of progress with Trump trade dealsBy business reporter David ChauTopic:Financial Markets2h ago2 hours agoTue 6 May 2025 at 10:04pmSkip to timelineabc.net.au/news/asx-markets-business-live-news-may-7-2025/105262110Link copiedShareShare articleThe Australian share market is set to fall for a third straight day as investors grow nervous about a lack of meaningful progress in negotiations to de-escalate Donald Trump's trade wars with the rest of the world.National Australia Bank's half-year profit has dropped 2.5 per cent, while chief executive Andrew Irvine says he is "optimistic" about the Australian economy's growth outlook.See how the trading day unfolds on our blog.Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice.Key EventsASX opens flat after US and China agree to hold trade talks5m ago5 minutes agoWed 7 May 2025 at 12:25amUS and Chinese officials to hold ice-breaker trade meeting in Switzerland40m ago40 minutes agoTue 6 May 2025 at 11:50pmUS trade deficit surged to record high ahead of Trump tariffs56m ago56 minutes agoTue 6 May 2025 at 11:34pmShow all key eventsSubmit a comment or question Log in to commentLive updatesLatestOldestPinned1m agoWed 7 May 2025 at 12:29amMarket snapshotDBy David ChauASX 200: flat at 8,154 pointsAustralian dollar: +0.5% to 64.95 US centsWall Street: Dow Jones (-1%), S&P 500 (-0.8%), Nasdaq (-0.9%)Europe: FTSE (flat), DAX (-0.4%), EuroStoxx 600 (-0.2%)Spot gold: -1.3% $US3,387/ounceBrent crude: +0.7% $US62.58/barrelIron ore: +2% to $US98.50/tonneBitcoin: +2.6% to $US97,210Prices current around 10:30am AESTLive updates on major ASX indices:Copy linkKey Event5m agoWed 7 May 2025 at 12:25amASX opens flat after US and China agree to hold trade talksDBy David ChauThe Australian share market is off to a slightly better-than-expected start after US and Chinese officials confirmed they will meet for trade negotiations this week.The ASX 200 index was flat at 8,155 points by 10:25am AEDT. (The futures market was pointing to a 0.4% drop at the open, so a flat open implies there's still a lot of caution from investors.)"My sense is this will be about de-escalation," US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News."We've got to de-escalate before we can move forward."Mr Bessent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer will hold a meeting with China's top economic officials in Switzerland on Saturday (local time).Investors are anxiously hoping they will reach some kind of deal to scale back the massive tariffs both countries have imposed on each other's imports.After the announcement, a Chinese commerce ministry spokesperson confirmed China had agreed to re-engage the US."On the basis of fully considering global expectations, China's interests, and the appeals of US industry and consumers, China has decided to re-engage the US," the Chinese statement said."There is an old Chinese saying: Listen to what is said, and watch what is done.... If (the U.S.) says one thing but then does another, or attempts to use talks as a cover to continue coercion and blackmail, China will never agree."US President Donald Trump and his trade team have sent mixed signals in the past few weeks, in regards to progress on negotiations with major trading partners.Copy linkKey Event40m agoTue 6 May 2025 at 11:50pmUS and Chinese officials to hold ice-breaker trade meeting in SwitzerlandDBy David ChauIt's possible the Australian share market might end up performing better than expected today.ASX futures were down 0.4%, while Wall Street's main indices fell for a second straight day on concerns there seemed to be a lack of progress with the Trump administration negotiating trade deals with other countries to scale back their trade wars.However, this latest news from Reuters might generate some optimism on the markets:"US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer will meet China's top economic official in Switzerland this week, US officials said, in what could be a first step toward resolving a trade war disrupting the global economy."The US trade representative's office and Treasury said Greer and Bessent would travel together to Geneva on Thursday and would also meet Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter to discuss negotiations over reciprocal trade."The agencies did not name which officials would attend the meeting from Beijing, saying only the two would engage with China's "lead representative on economic matters"."China's Vice-Premier He Lifeng is widely viewed as the country's economic czar and chief trade negotiator."This news is already having an impact on the US markets, with S&P 500 emini futures jumping 1% in after-hours trade.(It's a sign that Wall Street may rebound from its recent losses when normal trading resumes tonight).Now, let's see if this news has any effect on the Australian market …Copy linkKey Event56m agoTue 6 May 2025 at 11:34pmUS trade deficit surged to record high ahead of Trump tariffsDBy David ChauDonald Trump has been complaining for some time that America is being "ripped off" by other countries with "unfair" trade deals.That's one reason he used to declare a trade war on the rest of the world, imposing massive tariffs on foreign goods imported into the United States.Mr Trump has pointed to large trade deficits as evidence of America being taken for a ride by other nations. (Most economists — and people who've studied economics — strongly disagree with Trump's claims).Essentially, the US purchases a lot more from other nations, compared to what it sells them. (US residents are generally buying these products at a cheaper price — compared to what it would cost for them to be "made in America").With that in mind, the US president is unlikely to be pleased with the latest trade figures, which show the US trade deficit widened to a record high:Imports surged 4.4% to an all-time high $US419 billion in March.On the flip side, exports rose just 0.2% to $US278.5 billion, also a record high.As a result, the trade gap jumped 14% to a record $US140.5 billion in March (from a revised $US123.2 billion in the previous month), according to new data from the US Commerce Department.Businesses majorly ramped up their imports of goods ahead of tariffs being imposed in April.That was a major reason why gross domestic product (GDP) fell into negative terrain in the March quarter first quarter — for the first time in three years.If America's GDP falls again in the June quarter, it will mean the US economy has shrunk for six months in a row (which meets the definition of a technical recession).Copy linkKey Event1h agoTue 6 May 2025 at 11:08pmASIC imposes further restrictions on Macquarie Bank for repeated 'significant compliance failures'DBy David ChauAustralia's corporate watchdog has imposed further restrictions on Macquarie Bank for years of "multiple and significant compliance failures".ASIC said the failures related to Macquarie’s futures dealing business and its over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives trade reporting.The regulator has imposed additional restrictions on Macquarie's financial services licence, and is now requiring the bank to:Prepare a remediation plan to address the failures in their futures dealing business and OTC derivatives trade reporting functions and their root causesAppoint an independent expert to review and report on the adequacy of Macquarie’s remediation plan to address the failures and their root causes, andHave the independent expert assess the operational effectiveness of Macquarie’s remediation activities to prevent, detect and respond to similar issues occurring in its futures dealing and OTC derivatives businesses in the future.What were Macquarie's failures?ASIC said Macquarie had misreported, for a number of years:More than 375,000 OTC derivative transactions on seven occasions, andTwo futures dealing matters concerning the "prevention and detection of suspicious trading activity and the withholding of orders on the ASX24 market"."Misreporting of OTC derivative transactions can undermine market transparency and hinders ASIC’s ability to monitor potential risks in Australia’s financial system," ASIC Commissioner Simone Constant said."These licence conditions are necessary to give ASIC confidence the remediation will be effective and drive sustainable change."Mr Constant also said: "The additional licence conditions are a significant administrative action to ensure Macquarie comprehensively addresses ASIC’s concerns. It cannot be a piece-meal or bandaid fix."Macquarie must take responsibility and put in place appropriate action to remediate the repeated failures and underlying governance and supervisory failures."We were particularly disappointed that Macquarie failed to prevent 11 suspicious orders being placed on the electricity futures market via Macquarie terminals shortly after ASIC had referred similar failures to the Markets Disciplinary Panel which fined the bank just under $5 million."In September, ASIC fined Macquarie a record $4.995 million for failing to prevent suspicious orders being placed on the electricity futures market.Copy link1h agoTue 6 May 2025 at 10:56pmWATCH: What business groups want from re-elected govtSBy Stephanie ChalmersMedicare, renewable energy and housing are among the priorities for the re-elected Albanese government, but corporate Australia of course has its own priorities.Investment, cutting red tape and certainty around wages policy have been called out as priorities by peak business groups.It comes as the shadow of Trump's tariffs hangs over the economy.Watch this report from Daniel Ziffer on The Business:Loading...Copy linkKey Event2h agoTue 6 May 2025 at 10:26pmNAB half-year net profit slips to $3.4 billionMBy Michael JandaNational Australia Bank has just released its half-year results to the market, headlined by a 2.5% fall in statutory net profit to $3,407 million.That was despite a 1.1% rise in revenues and a stable net interest margin at 1.7%.Credit impairment charges were down compared with the second half of last year, but up compared to a year ago.The bank noted a small rise in impaired assets and defaults, with defaults now running at 1.27% and impaired assets at 0.22% of total loans.NAB CEO Andrew Irvine said the bank was being managed well in "challenging operating conditions"."Cash earnings were 0.8% higher than 2H24, with underlying profit growth and lower credit impairment charges partially offset by a higher effective tax rate," he noted in a statement."We are optimistic about the underlying growth outlook for the Australian and New Zealand economies."However, escalating global trade tensions are a key source of uncertainty. Against this backdrop, we have maintained strong balance sheet settings."NAB will pay an interim dividend of 85 cents a share, which is the same as its final dividend in the second half of last year.Mr Irvine will be interviewed by The Business presenter Kirsten Aiken later today, and you can watch that interview at 8:44pm on ABC News Channel or a couple of hours earlier on iView.Copy link2h agoTue 6 May 2025 at 10:15pmWhy Aussie could push above 70 US cents by year's endSBy Stephanie ChalmersThe Australian dollar has pushed above 65 US cents. Here's how it's travelled over the last few hours:AUDUSD (LSEG Refinitiv)It hit a five-year low in early April, breaking below the 60 US cent barrier as Donald Trump's tariffs roiled markets.Now, it's heading in the other direction and analysts are predicting it could have further to run from here.NAB currency strategist Rodrigo Catril says the US dollar is potentially embarking on structural decline driven by US Trump's policies, particularly tariffs and the trade war with China.He joined Kirsten Aiken on The Business:Loading...Copy linkKey Event2h agoTue 6 May 2025 at 10:14pmGold and oil prices rebound, Wall Street drops for second straight dayDBy David ChauBefore the ASX trading day begins in a couple of hours, let's take a quick look at what happened on markets overnight:Gold prices jumped to a two-week high, with the spot price rising 2.6% to $US3,421 an ounce. (It's also not far from the record high it touched last month).Oil prices rebounded after hitting a four-year low earlier this week. Brent crude futures jumped 3.4% to $US62.15 a barrel.Wall Street fell for its second day in a row. The Dow Jones closed 1% lower at 40,829 points, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.8% to 5,607 points, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.9% to 17,690 points. Copy link2h agoTue 6 May 2025 at 10:00pmMarket snapshotDBy David ChauASX futures: -0.4% to 8,133 pointsASX 200 (Tuesday close): -0.1% to 8,151 pointsAustralian dollar: +0.5% to 64.97 US centsWall Street: Dow Jones (-1%), S&P 500 (-0.8%), Nasdaq (-0.9%)Europe: FTSE (flat), DAX (-0.4%), EuroStoxx 600 (-0.2%)Spot gold: +2.9% $US3,431/ounceBrent crude: +3% $US62.03/barrelIron ore: +2% to $US98.50/tonneBitcoin: +0.1% to $94,763Prices current around 8am AESTCopy linkKey Event2h agoTue 6 May 2025 at 10:00pmASX to fall on lack of progress with US trade deals, Aussie dollar rises above 65 US centsDBy David ChauGood morning and welcome to the ABC's daily finance blog! I'll be your guide for the next few hours.The Australian share market is set to begin its day lower, following another weak performance on Wall Street on the back of Trump-related headlines (again).ASX futures are down 0.4%, so that points to a slight drop for the local market (make it the third day in a row it has fallen).US President Donald Trump has met with newly-elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in the White House, who reiterated his country is "not for sale" and "won't be for sale ever".Trump, meanwhile, made some remarks which made investors a little nervous."Everyone says, ‘When, when, when are you going to sign deals?’ We don’t have to sign deals," the President said.“They have to sign deals with us. They want a piece of our market. We don’t want a piece of their market.”Once again, investors are getting 'mixed messages' from the White House about how long it will take for America's trade war with the rest of the world to de-escalate.Earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said "we’re very close to some deals".Even Trump himself, on the weekend, said some trade deals could happen as early as this week.Lately, stock markets across the world have been surging on speculation some deals would be announced soon.Some of that enthusiasm faded on Wall Street overnight, with the Dow Jones (-1%), S&P 500 (-0.8%)and Nasdaq Composite (-0.9%) recording sizable losses.There were also signs of 'trade anxiety' on currency markets.The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.6% to 99.19.The weaker greenback helped push the Australian dollar (briefly) above 65 US cents overnight, the highest it's been since the year began.Copy linkPosted 2h ago2 hours agoTue 6 May 2025 at 10:04pm, updated 49m ago49 minutes agoTue 6 May 2025 at 11:41pmShare optionsCopy linkFacebookX (formerly Twitter)TimelineRead nextCommentsTimelineKey EventsLatestMarket snapshotEconomyLaborCompany newsMarketsASX opens flat after US and China agree to hold trade talks5m ago5 minutes agoWed 7 May 2025 at 12:25amUS and Chinese officials to hold ice-breaker trade meeting in Switzerland40m ago40 minutes agoTue 6 May 2025 at 11:50pmUS trade deficit surged to record high ahead of Trump tariffs56m ago56 minutes agoTue 6 May 2025 at 11:34pmASIC imposes further restrictions on Macquarie Bank for repeated 'significant compliance failures'1h ago1 hours agoTue 6 May 2025 at 11:08pmNAB half-year net profit slips to $3.4 billion2h ago2 hours agoTue 6 May 2025 at 10:26pmGold and oil prices rebound, Wall Street drops for second straight day2h ago2 hours agoTue 6 May 2025 at 10:14pmASX to fall on lack of progress with US trade deals, Aussie dollar rises above 65 US cents2h ago2 hours agoTue 6 May 2025 at 10:00pmTop StoriesEight dead after India strikes nine sites in Pakistan, officials sayTopic:Unrest, Conflict and WarBreaking: ASIC takes action against Macquarie for 'significant' failuresTopic:Business and Industry RegulationCourt orders release of 'vicious' CCTV footage after three-year legal battleTopic:CrimeA feedback loop tanked Dutton's campaign in its final weekAAnalysis by Annabel Crabb'Takes two to tango': Takeaways from the Trump-Carney White House chatTopic:World PoliticsJust InErin Patterson's mushroom murder trial resumesLIVE6m ago6 minutes agoWed 7 May 2025 at 12:23amVoices fund hails 'astronomical' regional seat gains despite defeatsTopic:Australian Federal Elections4m ago4 minutes agoWed 7 May 2025 at 12:25amASIC takes action against Macquarie for 'significant' failuresBREAKING45m ago45 minutes agoTue 6 May 2025 at 11:44pmKvitová wins on tour for first time since becoming a motherTopic:Tennis1h ago1 hours agoTue 6 May 2025 at 11:19pmMore Just InBack to top