liveMarkets live: NAB profit falls 2.5pc, ASX buoyed by US-China talks to 'de-escalate' trade warBy business reporter David ChauTopic:Financial Markets4h ago4 hours agoTue 6 May 2025 at 10:04pmSkip to timelineabc.net.au/news/asx-markets-business-live-news-may-7-2025/105262110Link copiedShareShare articleThe Australian share market has risen slightly on confirmation the United States and China will send trade officials to Switzerland to hold "de-escalation" talks.National Australia Bank's half-year profit has dropped 2.5 per cent, while chief executive Andrew Irvine says he is "optimistic" about the Australian economy's growth outlook.See how the trading day unfolds on our blog.Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice.Key EventsTrade shortages continue, despite low levels of new home building31m ago31 minutes agoWed 7 May 2025 at 2:00amAn economic comparison: the regions vs capital cities49m ago49 minutes agoWed 7 May 2025 at 1:41amA look at the jobs market over the ditch...1h ago1 hours agoWed 7 May 2025 at 1:26amShow all key eventsSubmit a comment or question Log in to commentLive updatesLatestOldestPinned2h agoWed 7 May 2025 at 12:29amMarket snapshotDBy David ChauASX 200: flat at 8,154 points (live figures below)Australian dollar: +0.5% to 64.95 US centsWall Street: Dow Jones (-1%), S&P 500 (-0.8%), Nasdaq (-0.9%)Europe: FTSE (flat), DAX (-0.4%), EuroStoxx 600 (-0.2%)Spot gold: -1.3% $US3,387/ounceBrent crude: +0.7% $US62.58/barrelIron ore: +2% to $US98.50/tonneBitcoin: +2.6% to $US97,210Prices current around 10:30am AESTLive updates on major ASX indices:Copy linkKey Event31m agoWed 7 May 2025 at 2:00amTrade shortages continue, despite low levels of new home buildingEBy Emily StewartThe residential building industry is continuing to face a serious shortage of skilled trades, according to the Housing Industry Association."Excluding the extremes of the pandemic, one would have to go back to before the GFC to find trade shortages as acute as they are now," said Housing Industry Association economist Tim Reardon.The HIA Trades Report has found the skills shortages are persisting, despite the low volume of home building in Australia this year."Australia has just seen its two weakest years of new home commencements in over a decade, meaning these ongoing shortages of skilled trades are not being caused by home building activity," Mr Reardon said.It found the shortages are due to labour demands from other constructions sectors and the wider economy.The demand for skilled labour is likely to increase, with home building set to increase as interest rates fall."Activity has already been increasing in Western Australia, Queensland and South Australia on the back of strong population growth, low unemployment, tight rental markets and rising prices, and recovering real incomes," he said.The shortages persist in every capital city and region and have led to the price of trades increasing by 5.5 per cent in the year to March.However, for the first time in almost five years there is a surplus of trades in two occupations; electrical and plumbing.The association has called for reforms to skilled migration to attract workers from overseas as well as greater support for apprentices. LoadingCopy linkKey Event49m agoWed 7 May 2025 at 1:41amAn economic comparison: the regions vs capital citiesEBy Emily StewartEconomists at the Commonwealth Bank have done a deep dive into the economic performance of Australia's capital cities compared to the regions in each state.Here's what they found:Since the pandemic, migration out of capital cities has supported regional economies. Spending in the regions continues to be higher than spending in capital cities. Regional labour markets remain tighter, with lower unemployment rates (except in regional SA). The pace of population growth has continued to rise in the regions (except regional Qld and Tas), while it has slowed in the capitals.Regional home prices and rental growth are also now outpacing the capital cities. Regional housing continues to be more affordable than the capitals, however migration is placing pressure on supply. This means some regional areas are becoming unaffordable. Have a look at this chart about housing affordability:Housing Affordability (CBA)Finally, population growth in Perth and Brisbane has far outpaced Sydney and Melbourne since the pandemic.CBA's Lucinda Jerogin says this has been driven by overseas and internal migration."Brisbane and Perth's populations have now surpassed their long-term trend, while Melbourne and Sydney have seen population declines to below trend levels since COVID-19.Labour markets remain tighter, spending higher and annual price growth stronger in Qld and WA compared to NSW and Vic."Copy linkKey Event1h agoWed 7 May 2025 at 1:26amA look at the jobs market over the ditch...EBy Emily StewartHello there.Congrats Dave, great to have another future finance journo in the team!Emily Stewart here, I'm jumping on to the blog to keep you updated this afternoon.Let's take a quick look at what's happening to the unemployment rate over in New Zealand.For the first quarter, the unemployment rate remained at 5.1 per cent (a bit lower than economists had expected).There was a 0.1 per cent increase in employment last quarter, however, the labour force participation rate continued to decline, down -0.1 per cent to 70.8 per cent. In a research note, Jack Stinson from JP Morgan says there's likely to be a further decline in the unemployment rate in second quarter of the year, before a modest improvement."While we think it's too early to say the jobless rate has reached its cycle peak, today's data clearly imply some downside to our forecast top (5.5%)."Additional drags on growth associated with the US tariff shock imply some further labour market weakness," he said.Wage growth was weaker than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's forecast (actual private sector wages up 0.4 per cent)."All in all, today's data release suggests that there is plenty of excess capacity in the labour market," said Capital Economics' Abhijit Surya."Insofar, as the weak labour market feeds through to weaker non-tradables inflation, it bolsters the case for the RBNSZ to loosen policy even further. Accordingly, we're sticking to our view that the Bank will cut rates to 2.5 per cent this cycle."Australia's labour force data will be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on May 15.Copy link1h agoWed 7 May 2025 at 1:16amI'm back!!!DBy David ChauHey Dave 😀 👋
You went missing 😭- NattyGood morning! Some of you have noticed that I went missing for a couple of months.Don't worry, it's nothing sinister! I was just on parental leave.I've just welcomed a baby boy into my family, and I now realise that I may never get "beauty sleep" ever again...So Natty, that solves the mystery of what I've been up to lately.Copy linkKey Event1h agoWed 7 May 2025 at 1:08amNAB and energy stocks jump, ASX remains flatDBy David ChauAfter one hour of trading, the Australian share market is still trading sideways.The ASX 200 was flat at 8,158 points by 11:05am AEDT.Only 93 out of the 'top 200' stocks have actually risen (so most of them are down today).So far, the energy (+1.3%) and financial sectors (+0.9%) are doing the heavy lifting.Shares of National Australia Bank have jumped 4% to $36.70.That's despite the bank reporting its half-year profit fell 2.5% to $3.4 billion. Basically, these results were still better than what markets had expected.Today's best performing stocks include fund manager Magellan Financial (+7.2%), gold miners and explorers Vault Minerals (+4.9%) and Emerald Resources (+4.8%), and uranium businesses Boss Energy (+5.9%), and Paladin Energy (+3.9%).On the flip side, JB Hi-Fi (-4.2%), Lynas Rare Earths (-2.6%), and Computershare (-2.6%) and Cochlear (-2.3%) are experiencing some of the heaviest losses.But the worst performer (by far) is software company Nuix, which plunged 19% in a single day.Essentially it's because Nuix is expecting to make less money than it previously anticipated.It was previously expecting an ACV (average annual contract value) growth target of 15%.But in April (after Donald Trump made his 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement), Nuix downgraded that guidance to 11 - 16%.Now the latest development is that the company has completely withdrawn that guidance altogether (not a development which inspires confidence in investors).Energy and financial stocks are among today's best performers. (Refinitiv)Copy link1h agoWed 7 May 2025 at 12:41am'Canada will never be for sale': key take-aways from Canadian PM Mark Carney's meeting with Donald TrumpDBy David ChauThere's been yet another high stakes (and at times tense) meeting in the White House — this time with Donald Trump's latest guest, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.The drama didn't quite match that acrimonious meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in February.However, Carney pushed back on Trump's ambition to make Canada the 51st US state, saying his nation was "not for sale".Here's our senior business correspondent Peter Ryan on what happened during that meeting between the US and Canadian leaders:Canadian PM Mark Carney tells Donald Trump: "Canada will never be for sale"Copy linkKey Event2h agoWed 7 May 2025 at 12:25amASX opens flat after US and China agree to hold trade talksDBy David ChauThe Australian share market is off to a slightly better-than-expected start after US and Chinese officials confirmed they will meet for trade negotiations this week.The ASX 200 index was flat at 8,155 points by 10:25am AEDT. (The futures market was pointing to a 0.4% drop at the open, so a flat open implies there's still a lot of caution from investors.)"My sense is this will be about de-escalation," US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News."We've got to de-escalate before we can move forward."Mr Bessent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer will hold a meeting with China's top economic officials in Switzerland on Saturday, local time.Investors are anxiously hoping they will reach some kind of deal to scale back the massive tariffs both countries have imposed on each other's imports.After the announcement, a Chinese commerce ministry spokesperson confirmed China had agreed to re-engage the US."On the basis of fully considering global expectations, China's interests, and the appeals of US industry and consumers, China has decided to re-engage the US," the Chinese statement said."There is an old Chinese saying: Listen to what is said, and watch what is done ... If (the US) says one thing but then does another, or attempts to use talks as a cover to continue coercion and blackmail, China will never agree."US President Donald Trump and his trade team have sent mixed signals in the past few weeks, in regards to progress on negotiations with major trading partners.Copy linkKey Event2h agoTue 6 May 2025 at 11:50pmUS and Chinese officials to hold ice-breaker trade meeting in SwitzerlandDBy David ChauIt's possible the Australian share market might end up performing better than expected today.ASX futures were down 0.4%, while Wall Street's main indices fell for a second straight day on concerns there seemed to be a lack of progress with the Trump administration negotiating trade deals with other countries to scale back their trade wars.However, this latest news from Reuters might generate some optimism on the markets:"US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer will meet China's top economic official in Switzerland this week, US officials said, in what could be a first step toward resolving a trade war disrupting the global economy."The US trade representative's office and Treasury said Greer and Bessent would travel together to Geneva on Thursday and would also meet Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter to discuss negotiations over reciprocal trade."The agencies did not name which officials would attend the meeting from Beijing, saying only the two would engage with China's "lead representative on economic matters"."China's Vice-Premier He Lifeng is widely viewed as the country's economic czar and chief trade negotiator."This news is already having an impact on the US markets, with S&P 500 emini futures jumping 1% in after-hours trade.(It's a sign that Wall Street may rebound from its recent losses when normal trading resumes tonight).Now, let's see if this news has any effect on the Australian market …Copy linkKey Event2h agoTue 6 May 2025 at 11:34pmUS trade deficit surged to record high ahead of Trump tariffsDBy David ChauDonald Trump has been complaining for some time that America is being "ripped off" by other countries with "unfair" trade deals.That's one reason he used to declare a trade war on the rest of the world, imposing massive tariffs on foreign goods imported into the United States.Mr Trump has pointed to large trade deficits as evidence of America being taken for a ride by other nations. (Most economists — and people who've studied economics — strongly disagree with Trump's claims).Essentially, the US purchases a lot more from other nations, compared to what it sells them. (US residents are generally buying these products at a cheaper price — compared to what it would cost for them to be "made in America").With that in mind, the US president is unlikely to be pleased with the latest trade figures, which show the US trade deficit widened to a record high:Imports surged 4.4% to an all-time high $US419 billion in March.On the flip side, exports rose just 0.2% to $US278.5 billion, also a record high.As a result, the trade gap jumped 14% to a record $US140.5 billion in March (from a revised $US123.2 billion in the previous month), according to new data from the US Commerce Department.Businesses majorly ramped up their imports of goods ahead of tariffs being imposed in April.That was a major reason why gross domestic product (GDP) fell into negative terrain in the March quarter first quarter — for the first time in three years.If America's GDP falls again in the June quarter, it will mean the US economy has shrunk for six months in a row (which meets the definition of a technical recession).Copy linkKey Event3h agoTue 6 May 2025 at 11:08pmASIC imposes further restrictions on Macquarie Bank for repeated 'significant compliance failures'DBy David ChauAustralia's corporate watchdog has imposed further restrictions on Macquarie Bank for years of "multiple and significant compliance failures".ASIC said the failures related to Macquarie’s futures dealing business and its over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives trade reporting.The regulator has imposed additional restrictions on Macquarie's financial services licence, and is now requiring the bank to:Prepare a remediation plan to address the failures in their futures dealing business and OTC derivatives trade reporting functions and their root causesAppoint an independent expert to review and report on the adequacy of Macquarie’s remediation plan to address the failures and their root causes, andHave the independent expert assess the operational effectiveness of Macquarie’s remediation activities to prevent, detect and respond to similar issues occurring in its futures dealing and OTC derivatives businesses in the future.What were Macquarie's failures?ASIC said Macquarie had misreported, for a number of years:More than 375,000 OTC derivative transactions on seven occasions, andTwo futures dealing matters concerning the "prevention and detection of suspicious trading activity and the withholding of orders on the ASX24 market"."Misreporting of OTC derivative transactions can undermine market transparency and hinders ASIC’s ability to monitor potential risks in Australia’s financial system," ASIC Commissioner Simone Constant said."These licence conditions are necessary to give ASIC confidence the remediation will be effective and drive sustainable change."Mr Constant also said: "The additional licence conditions are a significant administrative action to ensure Macquarie comprehensively addresses ASIC’s concerns. It cannot be a piece-meal or bandaid fix."Macquarie must take responsibility and put in place appropriate action to remediate the repeated failures and underlying governance and supervisory failures."We were particularly disappointed that Macquarie failed to prevent 11 suspicious orders being placed on the electricity futures market via Macquarie terminals shortly after ASIC had referred similar failures to the Markets Disciplinary Panel which fined the bank just under $5 million."In September, ASIC fined Macquarie a record $4.995 million for failing to prevent suspicious orders being placed on the electricity futures market.Copy link3h agoTue 6 May 2025 at 10:56pmWATCH: What business groups want from re-elected govtSBy Stephanie ChalmersMedicare, renewable energy and housing are among the priorities for the re-elected Albanese government, but corporate Australia of course has its own priorities.Investment, cutting red tape and certainty around wages policy have been called out as priorities by peak business groups.It comes as the shadow of Trump's tariffs hangs over the economy.Watch this report from Daniel Ziffer on The Business:Loading...Copy linkKey Event4h agoTue 6 May 2025 at 10:26pmNAB half-year net profit slips to $3.4 billionMBy Michael JandaNational Australia Bank has just released its half-year results to the market, headlined by a 2.5% fall in statutory net profit to $3.4 billion.That was despite a 1.1% rise in revenues and a stable net interest margin at 1.7%.Credit impairment charges were down compared with the second half of last year, but up compared to a year ago.The bank noted a small rise in impaired assets and defaults, with defaults now running at 1.27% and impaired assets at 0.22% of total loans.NAB CEO Andrew Irvine said the bank was being managed well in "challenging operating conditions"."Cash earnings were 0.8% higher than 2H24, with underlying profit growth and lower credit impairment charges partially offset by a higher effective tax rate," he noted in a statement."We are optimistic about the underlying growth outlook for the Australian and New Zealand economies."However, escalating global trade tensions are a key source of uncertainty. Against this backdrop, we have maintained strong balance sheet settings."NAB will pay an interim dividend of 85 cents a share, which is the same as its final dividend in the second half of last year.Mr Irvine will be interviewed by The Business presenter Kirsten Aiken later today, and you can watch that interview at 8:44pm on ABC News Channel or a couple of hours earlier on iView.Copy link4h agoTue 6 May 2025 at 10:15pmWhy Aussie could push above 70 US cents by year's endSBy Stephanie ChalmersThe Australian dollar has pushed above 65 US cents. Here's how it's travelled over the last few hours:AUDUSD (LSEG Refinitiv)It hit a five-year low in early April, breaking below the 60 US cent barrier as Donald Trump's tariffs roiled markets.Now, it's heading in the other direction and analysts are predicting it could have further to run from here.NAB currency strategist Rodrigo Catril says the US dollar is potentially embarking on structural decline driven by US Trump's policies, particularly tariffs and the trade war with China.He joined Kirsten Aiken on The Business:Loading...Copy linkKey Event4h agoTue 6 May 2025 at 10:14pmGold and oil prices rebound, Wall Street drops for second straight dayDBy David ChauBefore the ASX trading day begins in a couple of hours, let's take a quick look at what happened on markets overnight:Gold prices jumped to a two-week high, with the spot price rising 2.6% to $US3,421 an ounce. (It's also not far from the record high it touched last month).Oil prices rebounded after hitting a four-year low earlier this week. Brent crude futures jumped 3.4% to $US62.15 a barrel.Wall Street fell for its second day in a row. The Dow Jones closed 1% lower at 40,829 points, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.8% to 5,607 points, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.9% to 17,690 points. Copy link4h agoTue 6 May 2025 at 10:00pmMarket snapshotDBy David ChauASX futures: -0.4% to 8,133 pointsASX 200 (Tuesday close): -0.1% to 8,151 pointsAustralian dollar: +0.5% to 64.97 US centsWall Street: Dow Jones (-1%), S&P 500 (-0.8%), Nasdaq (-0.9%)Europe: FTSE (flat), DAX (-0.4%), EuroStoxx 600 (-0.2%)Spot gold: +2.9% $US3,431/ounceBrent crude: +3% $US62.03/barrelIron ore: +2% to $US98.50/tonneBitcoin: +0.1% to $94,763Prices current around 8am AESTCopy linkKey Event4h agoTue 6 May 2025 at 10:00pmASX to fall on lack of progress with US trade deals, Aussie dollar rises above 65 US centsDBy David ChauGood morning and welcome to the ABC's daily finance blog! I'll be your guide for the next few hours.The Australian share market is set to begin its day lower, following another weak performance on Wall Street on the back of Trump-related headlines (again).ASX futures are down 0.4%, so that points to a slight drop for the local market (make it the third day in a row it has fallen).US President Donald Trump has met with newly-elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in the White House, who reiterated his country is "not for sale" and "won't be for sale ever".Trump, meanwhile, made some remarks which made investors a little nervous."Everyone says, ‘When, when, when are you going to sign deals?’ We don’t have to sign deals," the President said.“They have to sign deals with us. They want a piece of our market. We don’t want a piece of their market.”Once again, investors are getting 'mixed messages' from the White House about how long it will take for America's trade war with the rest of the world to de-escalate.Earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said "we’re very close to some deals".Even Trump himself, on the weekend, said some trade deals could happen as early as this week.Lately, stock markets across the world have been surging on speculation some deals would be announced soon.Some of that enthusiasm faded on Wall Street overnight, with the Dow Jones (-1%), S&P 500 (-0.8%)and Nasdaq Composite (-0.9%) recording sizable losses.There were also signs of 'trade anxiety' on currency markets.The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.6% to 99.19.The weaker greenback helped push the Australian dollar (briefly) above 65 US cents overnight, the highest it's been since the year began.Copy linkPosted 4h ago4 hours agoTue 6 May 2025 at 10:04pm, updated 1h ago1 hours agoWed 7 May 2025 at 12:42amShare optionsCopy linkFacebookX (formerly Twitter)TimelineRead nextCommentsTimelineKey EventsLatestMarket snapshotEconomyLaborCompany newsMarketsTrade shortages continue, despite low levels of new home building31m ago31 minutes agoWed 7 May 2025 at 2:00amAn economic comparison: the regions vs capital cities49m ago49 minutes agoWed 7 May 2025 at 1:41amA look at the jobs market over the ditch...1h ago1 hours agoWed 7 May 2025 at 1:26amNAB and energy stocks jump, ASX remains flat1h ago1 hours agoWed 7 May 2025 at 1:08amASX opens flat after US and China agree to hold trade talks2h ago2 hours agoWed 7 May 2025 at 12:25amUS and Chinese officials to hold ice-breaker trade meeting in Switzerland2h ago2 hours agoTue 6 May 2025 at 11:50pmUS trade deficit surged to record high ahead of Trump tariffs2h ago2 hours agoTue 6 May 2025 at 11:34pmASIC imposes further restrictions on Macquarie Bank for repeated 'significant compliance failures'3h ago3 hours agoTue 6 May 2025 at 11:08pmNAB half-year net profit slips to $3.4 billion4h ago4 hours agoTue 6 May 2025 at 10:26pmGold and oil prices rebound, Wall Street drops for second straight day4h ago4 hours agoTue 6 May 2025 at 10:14pmASX to fall on lack of progress with US trade deals, Aussie dollar rises above 65 US cents4h ago4 hours agoTue 6 May 2025 at 10:00pmTop StoriesPakistan's prime minister vows India's attacks will 'not go unpunished'Topic:Unrest, Conflict and WarPhoto shows A man rides his motorbike through rubble in the darkASIC takes action against Macquarie for 'significant' failuresTopic:Business and Industry RegulationCourt orders release of 'vicious' CCTV footage after three-year legal battleTopic:CrimeA feedback loop tanked Dutton's campaign in its final weekAAnalysis by Annabel CrabbNationals leader backs in nuclear as Liberal senator demands it be scrappedTopic:ElectionsJust InFather who fatally shook baby has 10 years added to jail timeTopic:Courts18m ago18 minutes agoWed 7 May 2025 at 2:13amLiberal leadership race narrows to two likely contenders, Ley and Taylor, as MPs split over nuclearTopic:Liberal Party of Australia21m ago21 minutes agoWed 7 May 2025 at 2:09amKaren Webb to step down as NSW police commissionerBREAKING2m ago2 minutes agoWed 7 May 2025 at 2:29amBean counting continues as independent Jessie Price eyes a 'not-so-safe' Labor seatTopic:Australian Federal Elections16m ago16 minutes agoWed 7 May 2025 at 2:14amMore Just InBack to top