India bombs Pakistan in disputed Kashmir region — what happens next?By Max WaldenTopic:Unrest, Conflict and War41m ago41 minutes agoWed 7 May 2025 at 3:50amPakistan says it has shot down several Indian planes. (AP: Dar Yasin)abc.net.au/news/india-pakistan-kashmir-conflict-what-happens-next/105262466Link copiedShareShare articleWeeks of tension erupted early on Wednesday morning when India fired missiles into Pakistan and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, escalating the likelihood of a full-blown military confrontation between the nuclear-armed South Asian neighbours.Pakistani authorities said at least 19 people, including a child, were killed overnight, decrying a "blatant act of war".India said its strikes were "focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature", emphasising that no Pakistani military facilities had been targeted.Residents inspect a damaged building near Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. (AP: MD Mughal)New Delhi blamed Muslim-majority Pakistan for a terror attack last month in Indian-controlled Kashmir that killed 26 Hindu tourists — the deadliest violence against Indian civilians since the 2008 Mumbai attacks.Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged to hunt "terrorists and their backers … to the ends of the earth".Pakistan's government denied any involvement.Australian Strategic Policy Institute resident senior fellow Raji Pillai Rajagopalan said there was a "a lot of disappointment, pain and anger" in India over the religion-based targeting of civilians."India could not have gone without responding to this particular situation," she said.India was left reeling by the massacre of 26 civilians in Kashmir. (AP: Mukhtar Khan/File)So, how does this situation compare with past conflicts?And now that India has launched an assault, what happens next?How did we get here?Muslim-majority Kashmir is claimed by both India and Pakistan, with both countries controlling parts of the region separated by the Line of Control, the de facto border.The two countries fought wars in 1947-8, 1965, 1971 and 1999 and have clashed numerous times, most notably over Kashmir."We have actually seen this film play out before," said the Washington-based Hudson Institute's India Initiative director Aparna Pande."Every few years there's a terror attack inside India, which is almost always tied to a Pakistan-based terror group, there's an escalation in tensions."Since 2016 India has chosen not to restrain itself but conduct strikes … then Pakistan responds, and normally the international community comes in and de-escalates tensions," she said."Both countries then after a few years have conversations, then again a terror attack takes place. So this is a cycle on repeat."Loading...Amit Ranjan, a research fellow at the National University of Singapore's Institute of South Asian Studies, said in the 1999 Kargil war between India and Pakistan, fighting was mostly confined to mountainous areas so the civilian cost was minimal.But given Pakistani civilians had already been killed, it appeared to be a different scenario this time around, he said."If missiles start raining between the two countries, civilians may be affected," he said."When you have civilian casualties it becomes a bit difficult for anyone to not retaliate."Will India and Pakistan go to war?Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on social media: "The treacherous enemy has launched a cowardly attack on five locations within Pakistan."This heinous act of aggression will not go unpunished. Pakistan reserves the absolute right to respond decisively to this."Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif claimed five Indian planes had been shot down and that Indian soldiers had been captured.Pakistan protesters burn an Indian flag during a demonstration condemning the Indian missile strikes. (AP: Pervez Masih)Speaking to Bloomberg TV, Mr Asif denied that there were terrorist training camps in the areas struck by India and that it was civilians who were suffering."This has been initiated by India … If India backs down we will definitely wrap up this thing," he said."But as long as we are under attack, under fire, we have to respond. We have to defend ourselves."Experts said the course of the conflict depended on the scale and nature of Pakistan's response.India said its strikes were "focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature". (Reuters: Samuel Rajkumar/File)RAND Corporation defence analyst Derek Grossman told the ABC that the air strikes were "a very serious escalation in India-Pakistan tensions that could, if taken to the extreme, result in nuclear war"."Much depends on the Pakistani response, and if they stay true to their word, then their retaliation may be substantial and potentially escalatory," he said."It's unclear how long this conflict will last, but both sides have a clear incentive to ensure it does not get out of hand and to the nuclear level."What are the broader regional and global risks?The two countries possess comparable nuclear arsenals, with India holding 172 nuclear warheads and Pakistan 170."There is a chance, though low, that an escalating war could bring great powers into conflict via proxy as well," Mr Grossman said.India and Pakistan on the warpath againPhoto shows A missile the size of several cars is towed on the back of a truck down a street lined with onlookersExperts say a military conflict between the nuclear neighbours is almost guaranteed. What are the odds of it going too far? "India benefits from Russian assistance in the form of defensive weaponry, with the Kremlin reportedly recently having provided new missiles," he said."However, India also has a strong relationship with the United States, and it has pledged support as well. And Pakistan's closest strategic partner is China."Still, Dr Rajagopalan said Pakistan's leadership had "shown a reasonable amount of maturity to keep the conflict in limited fashion and not let it completely go out of hand"."One can expect some retaliatory strikes from their side … [but] both the Indian and Pakistani political leadership do know the limits of this particular conflict, that they cannot escalate it to a nuclear level."Loading...Pakistan also faces major economic challenges that could inhibit even any conventional war effort.Moody's Ratings warned on Monday that prolonged conflict with India would hurt its economic growth.By contrast, Moody's did not project significant economic consequences for India apart from the effect of higher defence spending on the government's fiscal position.Posted 41m ago41 minutes agoWed 7 May 2025 at 3:50am, updated 6m ago6 minutes agoWed 7 May 2025 at 4:25amShare optionsCopy linkFacebookX (formerly Twitter)Top StoriesPakistan's prime minister vows India's attacks will 'not go unpunished'LIVEPhoto shows A man rides his motorbike through rubble in the darkLiberal leadership race narrows to two likely contenders, Ley and Taylor Topic:Liberal Party of AustraliaPhoto shows Angus Taylor Sussan LeyPeter Dutton lands in Canberra as Coalition MPs divide on nuclear policyLIVEPhoto shows Peter Dutton walks through an airport with microphones and cameras surrounding him.ASIC takes action against Macquarie for 'significant' failuresTopic:Business and Industry RegulationPhoto shows Macquarie Group headquarters, SydneyA feedback loop tanked Dutton's campaign in its final weekAAnalysis by Annabel CrabbPhoto shows Clive Palmer NPCRelated storiesEight dead after India strikes nine sites in Pakistan, officials sayLIVEPhoto shows A man rides his motorbike through rubble in the darkIndia claims targets in Pakistan were 'terrorist infrastructure'Topic:Unrest, Conflict and WarPhoto shows Security officials stand at the site of a suspected Indian missile strike in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir on 7 May.Experts weigh in on possibility of war between nuclear powersTopic:Unrest, Conflict and WarPhoto shows A missile the size of several cars is towed on the back of a truck down a street lined with onlookersRelated topicsArmed ConflictAsiaDefence ForcesForeign AffairsIndiaPakistanTerritorial DisputesTerrorismUnrest, Conflict and WarWorld PoliticsTop StoriesPakistan's prime minister vows India's attacks will 'not go unpunished'Topic:Unrest, Conflict and WarPhoto shows A man rides his motorbike through rubble in the darkLiberal leadership race narrows to two likely contenders, Ley and Taylor Topic:Liberal Party of AustraliaPeter Dutton lands in Canberra as Coalition MPs divide on nuclear policyTopic:ElectionsASIC takes action against Macquarie for 'significant' failuresTopic:Business and Industry RegulationA feedback loop tanked Dutton's campaign in its final weekAAnalysis by Annabel CrabbJust InMember for Lingiari calls out racism at pre-polling boothTopic:Government and Politics6m ago6 minutes agoWed 7 May 2025 at 4:25amRelief felt by Australians as cost of crude oil drops to four year lowTopic:Oil and Gas7m ago7 minutes agoWed 7 May 2025 at 4:24amNew player shakes up regional Queensland electricity monopolyTopic:Electricity Production and Distribution10m ago10 minutes agoWed 7 May 2025 at 4:20amKaren Webb's time as police commissioner was not without controversyTopic:Police12m ago12 minutes agoWed 7 May 2025 at 4:19amMore Just InBack to top