Dutton hints at Coalition campaign failure as polls show Albanese majority in sightBy chief digital political correspondent Jacob GreberTopic:Government and Politics1h ago1 hours agoThu 1 May 2025 at 12:27amPeter Dutton held an early press conference on Thursday ahead of the release of his long-awaited costings. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)In short: Polls suggest Labor is on track to retain its governing majority on Saturday as Peter Dutton all but admitted his campaign performance has been weak.YouGov said its final 2025 election survey showed Labor had 52.9 per cent of the vote based on two-party preferences, versus the Coalition on 47.1 per cent, which implies a 0.7 per cent swing to Labor from the 2022 election, and is up from the government's 50.2 per cent recorded by YouGov at the start of the campaign.What's next?The Coalition will seek to emphasise its economic credentials with the release of its budget costings on Thursday.abc.net.au/news/dutton-hints-at-coalition-campaign-failure/105237478Link copiedShareShare articleAnthony Albanese heads into the final hours of the election campaign potentially on track to retain Labor's majority after Peter Dutton all but admitted he has botched the Coalition's campaign.With record numbers of Australians flocking to pre-polling booths, polls suggest Labor's momentum over the Coalition has firmed.Stay updated:Federal election live updates: Get the latest news from the campaign trailCatch the latest interviews and in-depth coverage on ABC iview and ABC ListenThe final election YouGov survey showed Labor's two-party preferred support on 52.9 per cent, with the Coalition on 47.1 per cent, a 0.7 per cent swing to the prime minister from the 2022 election. Coalition to release 'materially better' budget costingsPhoto shows A man wearing a suit and tie.Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor will claim the Coalition's budget deficits would be at least $10 billion smaller than Labor's forecast $150 billion shortfalls over four years.At the start of the campaign, in late March, the research group found Labor was on 50.2 per cent and the Coalition on 49.8 per cent.A separate Redbridge-Accent poll published in the Daily Telegraph on Thursday mirrored the YouGov results, showing Labor has extended its lead by an extra point to 53 per cent.Both polls indicate Labor would win a second term in office on Saturday and may potentially expand its majority.An analysis by YouGov projects Labor could win between 76 seats and 85 seats.Mr Dutton, speaking from his northern Brisbane seat of Dickson, sought to downplay the significance of the Coalition's election campaign performance, which is facing growing internal Coalition criticism for being ill-prepared and mistake-ridden.Setbacks have included Mr Dutton not appearing to know the price of eggs, prematurely musing about life in Kirribilli, reversing a planned ban on public service work from home rules, "verballing" the Indonesian president, and admitting he did "not know" Donald Trump despite guaranteeing he would land a trade deal in his first months in office.Read more about the federal election:Strange 'ballot-fellows' revealed on parties' how-to-vote cardsHow the Greens rebranded from environmental activists to the 'party of renters'The key election promises from Labor and the CoalitionWant even more? Here's where you can find all our 2025 federal election coverageThe Coalition has also struggled to sell its cornerstone nuclear power policy and suffered an industry backlash — including from Coalition fundraiser Gina Rinehart — over Mr Dutton's plan to intervene in the gas market."This election really is a referendum, not about the election campaign, but about the last three years of government," Mr Dutton said. "Are you better off today than you were three years ago?"'Nervous' Albanese also confronts dwindling primaryDespite the poll trends, Mr Albanese continued to downplay his prospects, admitting to Sydney's KIIS FM that he was nervous."Elections are tough … and they're tough to win. And here's a little fun fact for you — there has not been a prime minister re-elected since John Howard in 2004. [For] 21 years we've had a revolving door."Despite Labor's lead in the headline national two-party preferred polls, it's predicted both sides of politics will suffer weak levels of primary support.Peter Dutton drops vow to change school curriculum, after 'indoctrination' claimsPhoto shows Dutton looks down the barrell of the camera.Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has dropped his vow to change the national school curriculum, after comments earlier in the campaign that students should be able to think freely without being "indoctrinated" by educators.YouGov said 31.4 per cent of voters say they will give their first preferences to Labor, with the Coalition capturing about the same, or 31.1 per cent. Both would be lower than the last election.Greens are estimated to capture 12.6 per cent of the vote, on par with the party's 2022 result, while Pauline Hanson's One Nation has lifted its base from 5 per cent three years ago to 9.3 per cent."Others" are at 7.2 per cent, down from 9.2 per cent in 2022.YouGov's research was based on responses from 1,100 voters between last Thursday and Tuesday.Its two-party preferred results were based on "respondent-allocated" preferences, rather than the 2022 patterns.The low primary support suggests preference flows will play an outsized role in Saturday's final results, particularly in outer-urban electorates where there are signs disgruntled One Nation voters are more likely to preference the Liberal Party than in the past.YouGov's "central" case is for Labor to win 84 seats, with the Coalition falling to 47 seats and the Greens retaining three seats.Independents would hold 14 and "others" would have the remaining two seats in the House of Representatives.The group believes its data indicates all sitting independents would win their seats on Saturday, with the Coalition to also lose the electorates of Bradfield, Calare, Cowper, Monash and Wannon.By contrast, the Coalition would regain from Labor the seat of Aston, which the government won in a by-election in 2023.It also suggests the three Queensland seats held by the Greens will be close-run contests that remain too close to predict."While Labor is favoured to win Brisbane and Griffith from the Greens, the results will be determined by the preferences of voters of the third-placed party in what are three-way contests between Labor, Greens and the Coalition," YouGov said.Loading...Having trouble seeing this form? Try this link.Posted 1h ago1 hours agoThu 1 May 2025 at 12:27amShare optionsCopy linkFacebookX (formerly Twitter)Top StoriesThe strange 'ballot-fellows' revealed on parties' how-to-vote cardsTopic:ElectionsPhoto shows green how to vote cards in the background with a text box that says enter your suburbSurprise could lurk for Labor if enough voters vent anger over cost of livingDAnalysis by David SpeersPhoto shows Anthony Albanese NPC for Speers ColumnJacinta Nampijinpa Price contradicts Peter Dutton, asserting Coalition will end school 'indoctrination'Topic:Public SchoolsPhoto shows Jacinta Price speaks while Dutton stands behind her listening. 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