analysisLiberal wipe-out in Tasmania as Labor achieves double-digit swings in lower house seatsBy state political reporter Lucy MacDonaldTopic:Elections24m ago24 minutes agoSat 3 May 2025 at 8:02pmFederal Labor have wiped out the Liberal presence in Tasmania's lower house seats. (ABC News: Maren Preuss)abc.net.au/news/federal-election-tasmania-double-digit-swing-to-labor/105247118Link copiedShareShare articleThere was shock on the ABC election panel when the results started coming in."Remarkable" and "extraordinary" were some of the words used to describe what was happening in Tasmania on election night.It was something no-one saw coming — not the Liberals who thought they would defend their own seats and maybe, just maybe, pick up one, and not even Labor dared dream it would go this well.But when the music stopped, the Liberals were left without a single seat and a lot of questions to answer.Election essentials:Albanese clinches Labor "win for the ages" as Dutton loses his seatWhat was the result in your seat? Look up the map of your regionLook back on our federal election blog and check the latest live resultsLabor MP Julie Collins (centre) cheers at the Labor Party function at Bellerive Yacht Club. (ABC News: Maren Preuss)Let's wind back a bit first. To that weird pseudo campaign period.Going into the election there was a general feeling that the traditionally Liberal-supporting electorates of Bass and Braddon would likely stay blue, although it was a bit of a never-say-never vibe.Certainly there was consideration that Labor might just sneak across the line in Braddon due to well-known former Labor senator Anne Urquhart taking on lesser-known Liberal candidate Mal Hingston.Labor mounted a successful campaign with Ms Urquhart switching from the Senate to the lower house. (ABC News: Mackenzie Heard)At 1.4 per cent, Bass was always very marginal, but there was a sense the Liberals' Bridget Archer stood a chance based purely on her personal popularity.As for Lyons, it was viewed as a close contest between the Liberals' Susie Bower and former state leader Rebecca White. Although many believed Ms White would manage to retain the seat.But Labor didn't just sneak across the line, they steamrolled the Liberal candidates with huge swings in each of those three electorates, far larger than the national average.Three swings of more than 10 per cent. With Labor likely claiming four seats and Andrew Wilkie the fifth, it means there won't be a spot of blue on that map of Tasmania.So, what happened?Is Labor just fantastically popular on the island state? Its state counterparts aren't.Are the Liberals on the nose or was there something else at play?Let's start with the salmon factor.Albanese plants pro-jobs flag on salmon issueShortly before the election, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese quickly passed law changes aimed at protecting salmon jobs. (ABC News: Glenn Dickson)It was an issue that played out across the state in different ways.In the south there was a groundswell of community opposition in the wake of a mass mortality event that saw fat globules washing up on south-eastern Tasmanian beaches.Tasmanian salmon have been dying in a mass mortality event. (Supplied: Bob Brown Foundation)Protesters gathered at beaches and on parliament lawns as they urged others to "vote salmon out" with an anti-salmon farming candidate challenging Labor MP Julie Collins.But at the other end of the state there was a perception the Albanese government was "anti-worker" and had left the industry in uncertainty, as the federal environment minister worked out whether she needed to review salmon farming operations on the state's west coast.On the precipice of calling the election, Mr Albanese took decisive action and moved to amend the nation's environment laws to create a carve out for the salmon industry at Macquarie Harbour.Assessment of fish farming in Macquarie Harbour still 'active'Photo shows Aerial view of salmon pens and boat in coastal waterway.The future of salmon farming in Macquarie Harbour is still under "active" assessment by the federal government, despite the passing of laws designed to nullify the issue.It infuriated environment groups who gathered at Canberra Parliament House to voice their opposition.It was a gamble, given the salmon industry only accounts for 120 jobs in that area.But it was always about much more than those few jobs, it was signalling to workers across the country that the party was pro jobs.And it paid off.Meanwhile, that anti-salmon vote didn't dent Labor in the south in the way many expected.Anti-salmon farming campaigner Peter George is second on first preference votes in the seat of Franklin. (ABC News: Meg Whitfield)Sure, independent Peter George did very well and was second on first preferences.But Ms Collins saw a small swing back towards her.There was one 'anti-factor' in play across the state though — one that worked in Labor's favour. The anti-Dutton factor.Tasmanians didn't warm to Peter Dutton, who lost his own Queensland seat on election night. (ABC News: Matt Roberts )Antony Green set the gold standard for election analysisPhoto shows ABC election expert Antony Green smiles at the camera with his hands clasped behind his back.Antony Green has covered every single state and federal election that I have been alive for. He makes it all seem effortless. But I know how hard he's worked to be ready for May 3.When the rest of the country went red last election, Tasmania bucked the trend. The northern electorates stayed blue and the Liberals' Susie Bower very nearly stole Lyons from Labor, leaving it on a margin of 0.9 per cent.Turns out Tasmanians, in particular those in the electorate of Bass, were Scott Morrison fans. That didn't translate to Peter Dutton.In fact, the feedback door-knocking candidates regularly got was that they really didn't like Mr Dutton and at times that was enough to flip their vote.And both major parties knew it. Labor even played on it. Reminding people that if they voted for the well-liked Bass Liberal MP Bridget Archer, they'd ultimately get Mr Dutton.The Liberals' Bridget Archer lost her seat. (ABC News: Jonathan Mcnee)State Liberals on the noseBut perhaps the former opposition leader isn't the only one Tasmanian voters were punishing.The state Liberals are limping on in minority government in their fourth term.And it's pretty easy to come up with a list of things that are starting to really irk Tasmanians — the economy, the health system, that time they organised two brand new Spirit of Tasmania ferries but didn't get around to building a berth.And then there's the stadium.Tasmanian Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff has hitched his legacy to building an AFL stadium in Hobart. (ABC News: Luke Bowden)The proposed AFL stadium on Hobart's waterfront at Macquarie Point is almost entirely a state issue. There's of course the matter of federal funding but that's technically tied to the precinct.Sure the stadium has its supporters, but if the polls are anything to go by, far more people oppose it, particularly those in the northern half of the state.Read more about the federal election:Peter Dutton loses his Queensland seat of DicksonHave Your Say: What was the issue, policy or event that decided your vote?Federal election map: See a quick snapshot of how the parties are performingWant even more? Here's where you can find all our 2025 federal election coverageCatch the latest interviews and in-depth coverage on ABC iview and ABC ListenPeople are furious, but that's not stopping the state Liberal government, who appear determined to see it built no matter what.Yes, this is a state issue, but when you ask a Tasmanian about what they care about this election, it often crops up.Could it be that the federal Liberals have copped some of the backlash intended for their state counterparts?The result was even better than some in Labor predicted. (ABC News: Maren Preuss)In the end though they only have themselves to blame and as far as they're concerned, the picture isn't pretty.In Bass, the Liberals have lost a well-liked MP to a lesser-known Labor candidate.Rebecca White has not only defended Lyons for Labor, but increased the party's margin.Former state Labor leader Rebecca White made to switch to federal politics, nabbing the seat of Lyons. (ABC News: Maren Preuss)And the only seat the Liberals held that wasn't marginal has been well and truly claimed by Ms Urquhart.Whatever the reason for the Liberal wipe-out, and there are no doubt a myriad of factors, the Liberals are going to have a lot of lessons to learn if they want to have a presence in the state again.LoadingPosted 24m ago24 minutes agoSat 3 May 2025 at 8:02pmShare optionsCopy linkFacebookX (formerly Twitter)Top StoriesLABOR'S LANDSLIDE WINTopic:Australian Federal ElectionsPhoto shows Collage illustration of Anthony AlbaneseIt took just over two hours to call time on Dutton's two decades in politicsTopic:ElectionsPhoto shows A close up of Peter Dutton on stage. 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