Which Queensland seats will be interesting to watch this election?SBy Shari HamsTopic:Australian Federal Elections3h ago3 hours agoFri 2 May 2025 at 9:15pmDickson is the most marginal seat in Queensland. (ABC News: Peter Mullins)abc.net.au/news/queensland-key-federal-election-seats-peter-dutton-dickson/105235080Link copiedShareShare articleAs Queenslanders head to the polling booths, there'll be a guaranteed change across some of the 30 seats.Peter Dutton is vying to become prime minister, three MPs are calling time on their careers, and questions have been raised whether the Greens can keep their Brisbane inner-city seats. University of Queensland's Doctor Frank Mols specialises in political science and says there's interesting seats to watch in this state. Election essentials:Federal election live updates: Get the latest news as Australians head to the pollsKey election promises from Labor and the CoalitionFind out where your nearest voting centre is and how to fill out the ballot paperLoading...What are the key seats to watch?First and foremost, the seat of Dickson held by Opposition Leader Peter Dutton will be a particularly tight race as it's the most marginal seat in Queensland.He holds the seat with just a 1.7 per cent margin. Peter Dutton is vying for prime minister. (ABC News: Matt Roberts )"There's an independent candidate there that's gathering steam," Dr Mols says.That's Ellie Smith, a teal-like independent who will also be up against Labor's Ali France, who's challenging for the third time. Ellie Smith is an independent candidate for the seat of Dickson. (ABC News: Mark Leonardi)Dr Mols says it's "really unpredictable what's going to happen"."It's certainly one of those seats to watch," he says.Ali France is the Labor candidate for the seat of Dickson. (ABC News: Alex Brewster)The other area of interest is inner Brisbane, where the Greens currently hold the seats of Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan.In 2022, they claimed the seats in a so-called "green-wave", but this time around they'll face an uphill battle to retain the seats. "All three are potentially seeing a swing against the greens," Dr Mols says."But the question is, is the swing against the Greens big enough to make it change colours?"The Greens will fight to keep their seats in Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan. (ABC News: Peter Mullins)Dr Mols says he believes Griffith, which is currently held by the Greens housing and homelessness spokesperson Max Chandler-Mather, is probably the safest one of the three.It has a 10.5 per cent margin, which Dr Mols says gives Mr Chandler-Mather a healthy buffer. "The Greens did so well last time [2022] because they captured the teal leaning vote," he says."The fact that the Greens won three lower house seats in 2022 is often seen as a Queensland version of a teal surge."Dr Mols says Max Chandler-Mather is "probably" in one of the safest seats. (AAP: Darren England)Where is change guaranteed?Three MPs will be retiring across Queensland.LNP's Karen Andrews in McPherson on the southern Gold Coast, LNP's Warren Entsch in Leichhardt in Far North Queensland and Labor's Graham Perrett in Moreton in Brisbane's south-east.Three Queensland MPs, Karen Andrews, Warren Entsch and Graham Perrett, are retiring. (ABC News: Peter Mullins)But Dr Mols says each seat will be contested differently.For example, Moreton has historically flipped from Labor to Liberal "quite regularly" in elections."We might see a little bit more of a chance of a contender taking the seat," he says. Labor's Julie-Ann Campbell is facing off against Henry Swindon from the LNP.The Greens Remah Naji will also challenge the seat.Remah Naji is a Brisbane mum and tertiary education worker. (Supplied: Queensland Greens)Dr Mols says Moreton is a "more interesting seat" to watch than McPherson."I think [McPherson has] been a safe LNP liberal seat for a long time," he says.Karen Andrews is retiring from a Liberal safe seat in McPherson. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)In Far North Queensland, the seat of Leichhardt is also one to watch with Liberal stalwart Warren Entsch retiring after nearly three decades serving the electorate. With his departure, Labor has sensed an opportunity, and has pre-selected former Cairns Taipans basketball player Matt Smith to challenge the LNP's Jeremy Neal, a former paramedic.Read more about the federal election:A single moment early in this election campaign came to define itDutton finishes campaign with lurch towards Trumpian politicsSee how your views align with the major parties with Vote CompassWant even more? Here's where you can find all our 2025 federal election coverageCatch the latest interviews and in-depth coverage on ABC iview and ABC ListenWho are the teals?Teal-like candidates failed to make any inroads in Queensland in the last federal election but there's interest this time round. This group of independents gets its nickname because when it comes to values, they're typically a bit more economically conservative but socially progressive.Six community independents are running for seats in Queensland. (Supplied/ABC News)Six community independents or "teals" are running for long-held LNP seats in Queensland."All six backed (financially and otherwise) by Simon Holmes à Court's Climate200 group," Dr Mols says.Keryn Jones is a former Sunshine Coast councillor, running this federal election as an independent. (Supplied: Keryn Jones)Among the line-up is former Sunshine Coast councillor Keryn Jones for Fisher and small business owner Francine Wiig.Six teals fight against history, safe seats to change Qld politicsPhoto shows Graphic of six women with an image of Queensland in the background.Deep in Queensland's blue-blood heartland, six women want to dismantle decades of LNP supremacy.On the Gold Coast is Erchana Murray-Bartlett, and Nicole Arrowsmith.Suzie Holt will be vying for the seat in Groom, which includes the rural community of Toowoomba and as mentioned earlier, Ellie Smith who is battling for the high profile seat of Dickson.If elected, they will become the first federal independents to be elected in Queensland since Pauline Hanson and Bob Katter more than 20 years ago.Bob Katter and Pauline Hanson were Queensland's first federal independents to be elected. (AAP: Lukas Coch and Mick Tsikas)Is Queensland considered a conservative state?From a distance, Queensland is often viewed as a "very conservative" state with the LNP holding 21 of the 30 federal electorates.Is Queensland the cowboy state?Photo shows A man stands on the bitumen with outback landscape behind him with a cowboy hatWith the abortion debate making Queensland's election campaign national news, many Australians might be thinking 'cowboy' is a label applying to more than just supporters of the NRL team, writes Matt Eaton."I think in rural and regional Australia, that's certainly the case," Dr Mols says.But in south-east Queensland, where most of the population resides, there's a lot more versatility in voter behaviour."It's a bit like in Western Australia, which was so instrumental in getting Labor elected last time in 2022, Queensland has also played that role in the past," Dr Mols says.Kevin Rudd won the election with his 2007 campaign. "Think of the 2007 election with Kevin Rudd. Queensland played a quite pivotal role in that overall victory for Labor."But this time, Dr Mols doubts what happens in Queensland will be critical to the outcome of the election.Follow the latest election newsPhoto shows ABC News Radio logo and the ABC Listen logo below it on a light blue background.Hear the latest election news as it happens on the Election Central Playlist. Only on the ABC listen app.Record pre-polling figuresThe Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) says this year's federal election has seen a record number of early voters.As of booths closing on Thursday afternoon, 5.6 million Australians had already cast their ballots — compared to 4.6 million pre-poll voters from the same period leading up to the 2022 election. Pre-polling booths have been busy in the lead-up to this election. (ABC News: Christopher Gillette)Of those pre-polling figures, 1.2 million ballots were cast in Queensland — an increase from the 1 million people who had voted early by the same time in the 2022 election."Year on year, we're seeing more growth," an AEC spokesperson said. It's the most early voters any federal election has recorded in recent memory.LoadingLoading...Having trouble seeing this form? Try this link.Posted 3h ago3 hours agoFri 2 May 2025 at 9:15pm, updated 1h ago1 hours agoFri 2 May 2025 at 11:00pmShare optionsCopy linkFacebookX (formerly Twitter)Top StoriesAlbanese says his political 'holy grail' is 'back-to-back wins' as Dutton makes another fuel stopLIVEPhoto shows Anthony Albanese speaking in a sports stadium. 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