analysisTasmanian Labor buoyed by ALP victory, but can the state party capitalise on it?By state political reporter Lucy MacDonaldTopic:Elections43m ago43 minutes agoSun 4 May 2025 at 9:38pmA Labor Party win has swept across the state, taking in four of the five electorates. (ABC News: Maren Preuss)abc.net.au/news/federal-election-what-does-the-result-mean-for-tasmania/105247092Link copiedShareShare articleAs the red wave swept Tasmania on election night, it wasn't just the federal Labor Party that was celebrating the "extraordinary" result.Closely watching as the votes flowed in, sometimes side by side with the federal candidates, were members of the party's state team, experiencing by proxy something that they haven't for a long time — victory.Tasmanian Labor has been stuck in the political wilderness for more than a decade now.Shadow Attorney-General Ella Hadad (front left) was among those celebrating on election night. (ABC News: Maren Preuss)Before federal election night, the idea of the state Labor party securing a return to a majority at the next state election looked almost impossible.But the federal result left some, including state leader Dean Winter, feeling hopeful the party could claim government at the next election.Election essentials:Federal election live updates and live resultsHow Labor carved a path to a landslide victoryWhat was the result in your seat? Look up the map of your region"It demonstrates that Labor's back in Tasmania," Mr Winter said."The Labor Party in Tasmania is united, we're positive and we're completely committed to delivering government."Dean Winter is buoyed by the federal Labor result. (ABC News: Luke Bowden)Tasmania not due for election until 2028Meanwhile, the Tasmanian Liberal government has been left shell shocked by the wipe-out of their federal colleagues.Antony Green set the gold standard for election analysisPhoto shows ABC election expert Antony Green smiles at the camera with his hands clasped behind his back.Antony Green has covered every single state and federal election that I have been alive for. He makes it all seem effortless. But I know how hard he's worked to be ready for May 3.The fourth-term state government is currently in minority, holding just 14 seats out of 35, ahead of Labor's 10.But how worried should the government really be? And is the federal result likely to play out on a state level?Firstly, it's worth pointing out that Tasmania isn't due an election for almost three years — although the past few cycles have been shorter.So just because Tasmanians feel this way now, it doesn't mean they will in 2028.Labor also has a lot of ground it needs to gain to win another eight seats.And it's lost its big vote winner to the federal seat of Lyons — Rebecca White, who topped the poll at the past three state elections.Julie Collins (left) and Rebecca White were all smiles after winning seats in the federal election. (ABC News: Maren Preuss)But, let's say state Labor manages to replicate the improved primary vote tallies of the federal candidates at the next election.Well, according to election expert Kevin Bonham that won't be enough to win the party a majority. It'll need a much larger share of the vote than that."[Federally], for Tasmania, Labor is on about 37 [per cent], Liberals on about 24, independents on 18," Mr Bonham said."So, if you got something like that at a state level that would be Labor picking up seats and becoming the largest party, but not forming majority government."If you apply the federal swing of 9 per cent to the state election that still wouldn't be likely to get Labor to a majority government in a 35-seat house."The ALP previously held Franklin with margin of 13.7 per cent, but saw a swing against it of 6.8 per cent. (ABC News: Maren Preuss)That's because of Tasmania's unique preferential voting system, Hare Clark, and the complexity of multi-member electorates."A lot of the Greens votes that flow back [to Labor] as preferences in the [federal] House of Reps, at the state level would elect Greens," Mr Bonham said.He said it was also important to recognise that the state Liberals already had a large swing against them at the last state election."The odds that it's going to carry on from this federal election and then occur again in the next state election, well it could happen if the government is seen as a complete shambles, but they've already had one dose of it," he said.A tale of two Liberal leadersThen there's the Jeremy Rockliff factor.Where former federal opposition leader Peter Dutton had a hard reputation, the moderate Tasmanian Liberal premier is known as the nice guy of Tasmanian politics.A farmer and Lifeline counsellor, he's well liked across the political spectrum, doesn't engage in culture wars and campaigned for a Voice to Parliament when his party was against it.On the other hand, Mr Dutton appeared to be the federal Liberals' Achilles' heel in Tasmania.Unlike Peter Dutton (left), premier Jeremy Rockliff maintains his public appeal. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)Whereas former prime minister Scott Morrison was popular in the state's north, that didn't translate to Mr Dutton.And it came through on the doors, as incoming Lyons MP Rebecca White told reporters on Sunday."I felt very strongly there was a strong dislike of Peter Dutton and his policies," Ms White said.That "toxic" anti-Dutton factor that rolled across Tasmania is unlikely to play out while Mr Rockliff is in charge.However, the premier has been in politics for more than two decades now and rumours continue to swirl that he's ready to step away from that life.As for the next leader waiting in the Liberal wings, the only succession options appear to be from the conservative side of the party, some of whom aren't afraid to lean into culture wars.Though many are biting their tongues at the moment.Read more about the federal election:It took just over two hours to call time on Dutton's two decades in federal politicsHave Your Say: What was the issue, policy or event that decided your vote?Federal election map: See a quick snapshot of how the parties are performingWant even more? Here's where you can find all our 2025 federal election coverageCatch the latest interviews and in-depth coverage on ABC iview and ABC ListenOne Liberal insider described the result in Tasmania as "a wake-up call", a reminder that while convictions are important, the party must remain close enough to the centre to appeal to the majority of voters.It was a sentiment reflected by outgoing moderate federal Bass MP Bridget Archer on Saturday night as she spoke about her party's loss."If there is no place for people like me in the Liberal Party then that is a sad day for democracy," she said.Tasmania's northern seats flip to Labor in federal electionPhoto shows Jess Teesdale stands alongside volunteers after winning seat of BassNorthern Tasmania dramatically swings to Labor in a surprise result that pushed out a high-profile MP and turned a safe Liberal seat red.Saturday's result provides a wake-up call for both major parties.For Labor, that voters can be persuaded to mobilise behind it if there's the right candidates, and the campaigning and message is compelling.For the Liberal state government, it's a harder lesson to learn — lose touch with what truly matters to voters and you might lose office.Lucky for them, someone else has taken the fall and they've been given a road map of what not to do.It's up to them if they choose to follow it — or not.Tasmanian election resultsLoadingPosted 43m ago43 minutes agoSun 4 May 2025 at 9:38pmShare optionsCopy linkFacebookX (formerly Twitter)Top Stories'Laughable policies': Voters explain what went wrong for CoalitionTopic:ElectionsPhoto shows A young coupleThe message to the Coalition is clear: This is not John Howard's AustraliaPAnalysis by Patricia KarvelasPhoto shows Anthony Albanese holds up his hands to calm the crowd.Liberal MP slams leadership contender Angus TaylorTopic:Liberal Party of AustraliaPhoto shows Hollie Hughes dstop'Time for a change': Dickson voters on why Dutton was dumpedTopic:ElectionsPhoto shows Election corflutes featuring Peter Dutton on display.PM returns to Canberra as process to pick new frontbench beginsLIVEPopular now'Laughable policies': Voters explain what went wrong for CoalitionTopic:ElectionsPhoto shows A young coupleThe message to the Coalition is clear: This is not John Howard's AustraliaPAnalysis by Patricia KarvelasPhoto shows Anthony Albanese holds up his hands to calm the crowd.'Time for a change': Dickson voters on why Dutton was dumpedTopic:ElectionsPhoto shows Election corflutes featuring Peter Dutton on display.Related topicsAustralian Federal ElectionsBurnieDevonportElectionsHobartLauncestonNational ElectionsPolitical CampaignsTASTop Stories'Laughable policies': Voters explain what went wrong for CoalitionTopic:ElectionsPhoto shows A young coupleThe message to the Coalition is clear: This is not John Howard's AustraliaPAnalysis by Patricia KarvelasLiberal MP slams leadership contender Angus TaylorTopic:Liberal Party of Australia'Time for a change': Dickson voters on why Dutton was dumpedTopic:ElectionsPM returns to Canberra as process to pick new frontbench beginsTopic:Australian Federal ElectionsJust InHow Kayla's great work, life, study balance is a fast track to a careerTopic:Secondary Education12m ago12 minutes agoSun 4 May 2025 at 10:09pmLiberal MP slams leadership contender Angus TaylorTopic:Liberal Party of Australia14m ago14 minutes agoSun 4 May 2025 at 10:07pmTracing the history of the piano through centuries of musicTopic:Music21m ago21 minutes agoSun 4 May 2025 at 10:00pmIs it time for change at Fremantle after a Docker shocker at Docklands?Analysis by Tom Wildie34m ago34 minutes agoSun 4 May 2025 at 9:46pmMore Just InBack to top