Final campaign dash kicks off as Albanese sweats on last-minute Dutton suburban fightbackBy chief digital political correspondent Jacob Greber and national affairs correspondent Jane NormanTopic:Elections1h ago1 hours agoTue 29 Apr 2025 at 6:31pmPrime Minister Anthony Albanese is planning to visit every state before election day. (ABC News: Brendan Esposito)In short: Labor and the Coalition are preparing a frenetic final 72 hours, as Anthony Albanese defends his potential lead against a last-minute outer suburban swing to Peter Dutton.Despite a falling primary vote, the opposition could benefit from commuter-belt voters who are more likely to preference the Coalition over Labor compared to 2022, polling research suggests.What's next?The prime minister will on Wednesday address the National Press Club for the 11th and final time this term before hitting all six states by election day.abc.net.au/news/final-campaign-dash-kicks-off-election/105147796Link copiedShareShare articleBoth sides of politics are gearing up for a frenetic 72 hours of campaigning with Anthony Albanese visiting every state before election day amid Labor fears Peter Dutton is staging a last-minute recovery.Despite a reported slide in the Coalition's primary vote to levels that would have historically made victory impossible, speculation has emerged that disgruntled outer-urban voters are more likely to preference the Liberal party than in previous elections.John Scales, co-founder of polling company JWS Research, said disenchanted voters in commuter-belt working class suburbs are sceptical of both major parties.Stay updated:Federal election live updates: Get the latest news from the campaign trailCatch the latest interviews and in-depth coverage on ABC iview and ABC ListenHowever, unlike in 2022 when around two-thirds of One Nation and other centre-right minority party voters put the Coalition ahead of Labor, they now look likely to break 80:20 or as much as 90:10 towards Mr Dutton.The findings are based on polling across more than a dozen seats, with samples of 800 voters apiece where respondents were given the names of candidates and pressed to nominate a preference for the major parties.Mr Scales said the findings — if borne out on Saturday — mean the Liberals can still win as many as 10 such seats despite a falling primary vote.Seats that may break as Mr Scales described include Ryan in Brisbane, Bullwinkel in Western Australia, and Whitlam and Werriwa in New South Wales. He said the drift towards a Coalition-friendly preference flows was not evident in inner-city or teal-held seats, where the split was a more traditional 66:33."We're not saying [Dutton] can win, we're saying it's a lot closer than people think," Mr Scales told the ABC.Peter Dutton campaigning in the seat of Whitlam on Tuesday. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)Sunday's Newspoll showed Labor continues to gather steam, with a two-party preferred lead of 52-48. The Coalition's national primary was 35 per cent, followed by Labor on 34 per cent, the Greens on 11 per cent, 8 per cent for One Nation and 12 per cent for all others.Mr Dutton is set to get a boost from the Liberal Party's decision to preference One Nation second in the majority of electorates across the country, something the Pauline Hanson-led party has said it would reciprocate for the Coalition.Labor fears Coalition comebackNervousness is growing across the political spectrum, with large swathes of undecided and disinterested voters tuning into the campaign for the first time, raising the risks of wild-card outcomes.Former Scott Morrison chief political strategist Yaron Finkelstein said there was "still a long way to go and a lot of people are undecided".The uncertainty of the 2025 election, he said, is akin to "where seawater meets freshwater — the brackish effect"."Do voters move away from the majors or is there a safe harbour effect?"The art and science of picking election winnersPhoto shows Two people standing at polling booths casting a vote.Political polling has been around as long as democracy itself and its influence on the election cycle is undeniable, but insiders say it’s never been more challenging to get right. Mr Albanese will begin his final push from Canberra on Wednesday, delivering his 11th National Press Club address before embarking on a final lap of the nation's toughest contests, stopping in all six states.While Labor has entered the final stretch of the campaign with polls showing it has its nose in front of the Coalition, government strategists said they are determined to maintain momentum as the Liberals unleash a major advertising blitz across television and social media.Among their chief fears is that Mr Dutton "could make a comeback" thanks to well-targeted advertising that reminds people about their disappointment over Labor's handling of inflation and declining living standards earlier in the term.Pollsters and party pundits warn of a wide-range of potential outcomes on Saturday, from an expanded Labor majority to hung parliament in which Mr Dutton has the whip hand to form government.Read more about the federal election:How much Climate 200 has donated to 19 independentsCoalition tapping into community concerns about crime ahead of electionFind out how your views line up with the major parties with Vote CompassWant even more? Here's where you can find all our 2025 federal election coverageAlbanese set for National Press Club addressMr Dutton is understood to have waved off an offer to address the National Press Club, essentially following the footsteps of the past two federal election losers, Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten.The opposition leader's decision means Mr Albanese will continue the tradition of a final-week appearance at the club, granting him command of a national audience on Wednesday for a final time.He is expected to use it to sum up the themes of his campaign and highlight his willingness to be accountable and front up to reporters versus an opponent who has never appeared at the press club.Despite final-day jitters, Labor is understood to be optimistic about its prospects of a declining Greens vote in the Queensland capital's seats of Griffith and Brisbane, while Ryan, another seat held by the minor party, is regarded as out of reach.In the battlegrounds of Victoria — where the Liberal Party is hoping for major seat gains — Labor believes its position is "a lot stronger" than in the aftermath of February's Werribee by-election, which the state party held despite a 10 per cent swing to the Liberal Party.Published polls suggest Labor has closed what had been a significant lead by the Coalition in Victoria, cutting the anti-government swing to between 1-2 per cent from 6-7 per cent last year.Seats in play include government-held Aston, Chisholm, McEwan, Bruce, Dunkley and Hawke, while Labor believes it's competitive in Liberal-held Deakin and Menzies.Labor remains worried about the marginal seat of Werriwa in Western Sydney and confident in Western Australia.Loading...Having trouble seeing this form? Try this link.Posted 1h ago1 hours agoTue 29 Apr 2025 at 6:31pmShare optionsCopy linkFacebookX (formerly Twitter)Top StoriesAustralia faces a 'lonelier' world with rules-based order crumblingTopic:National SecurityPhoto shows Two men wearing glasses and suits behind the backdrop of the world map.Data shows shift in views towards Australia's relationship with US and ChinaTopic:Foreign AffairsPhoto shows A graphic shows a defence tank and aircraft over a map of Australia.China takes back seat in vote, though risks shaping policyTopic:Foreign AffairsPhoto shows A man in a suit, Xi Jinping, waves at camera.There's a reason Dutton can't resort to a scare campaign with older AustraliansAAnalysis by Annabel CrabbPhoto shows Peter Dutton'What I feel is left out': The growing pains of Australia's newest suburbsTopic:Housing PolicyPhoto shows A man stands with his arms crossed in front of a house next to an empty lot. 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